Equity investment professionals are more confident about 2013’s markets than their fixed income counterparts, Aviva Investors’ annual fund manager survey has found.
Of the 57 equity and fixed income fund managers surveyed in the UK, US and Europe, representing £2.5 trillion of assets under management, 69% of equity managers are more confident about markets than they were this time last year, compared to 26% of fixed income fund managers who shared this view.
Equity managers are more confident about global market returns than they were last year. 71% are expecting 5% to 15% return for 2013 but last year the majority expected 10% or less for 2012.
However, fixed income managers are far less confident about market returns. While 95% expect positive returns of up to 10% for corporate bonds, 62% expect negative returns for sovereign bonds, compared to 23% last year.
Aviva Investors co-head of multi-manager Peter Fitzgerald said: “It is interesting to note the important role that confidence plays even to professional investors. While equity investors are often those with a more optimistic view, the year-on-year change and divergence in sentiment is dramatic. On the back of a year of strong returns, equity managers have become more bullish and far more confident than their fixed income peers. Whilst risks have by no means dissipated entirely, as exemplified by the recent Italian election results, it does appear as though the investment professionals are expecting a rotation from bonds to equities.”
The survey also found that equity managers were more bullish on financial stocks with 38% expecting them to deliver the greatest performance this year. However in contrast, 44% were underweight in the sector last year and only one manager was overweight. This indicates that just over half of equity managers held index weights, Aviva said.
In addition, 62% of equity managers said macro-economic issues were the biggest risk to equities, which remains unchanged from last year.
Among the fixed income managers, only 20% were worried about liquidity risk in corporate bonds – a drop from 77% who were concerned about this in 2012. Concerns over defaults in sovereign bonds also dropped from 64% last year to 6% this year.
The majority of fixed income managers stipulated low yields and rising interest rates as the biggest risks to their asset class. In comparison, a small minority was concerned about interest rate rises last year.
In addition, the majority of managers (81%) agree that diversifying fixed income investments will be a key driver for returns in 2013.












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